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The Tour de France is getting faster. But why?

Every summer, cyclists shave time off their climbs by increasing race speeds and finding new ways to push the limits of human performance.

Researchers at ���ϲ����� want to know what’s behind it. Using 40 years of race data, a team led by Patrick Wilson, Ph.D., associate professor in exercise science, and Ross Gore, Ph.D., research associate professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC), analyzed how the world’s most demanding cycling event — and everything surrounding it — has evolved, and what that could reveal about the future limits of human endurance.

Nicole Knight, a junior studying exercise science, along with Paul Sarac (M.S. ’25) and Ian Winter, both doctoral students studying kinesiology and rehabilitation, assisted with the project.

Tour de France Research Findings and Race Predictions

The researchers’ goal was to identify the factors contributing to race pace and forecast future winners’ potential speeds using race times dating back to 1986.

Their findings show both overall and stage-specific finishing speeds across flat, hilly and mountainous terrain have increased over the years. While not directly modeled in their study, a combination of factors like advances in bike technology, nutrition, training and team resources have likely fueled these gains.

However, some variables, such as weather, have been excluded due to inconsistent historical data that is older than a decade.

With those considerations in mind, the team has made a prediction for the speed of this year’s champion.

They predict the average speed of the 2026 winner to be 41.81 kilometers per hour (kph), which is about 1 kph slower than the winning speed in 2025.

“You don’t just break a record every year,” said Dr. Gore. “Overall, the average for the next five years will be faster than the previous five years, but it won’t just iteratively climb up like stairs.”

Dr. Wilson said this year’s course could be harder than last year’s, so the average profile score on each stage is higher this year, comparatively.

About the Tour de France

The Tour de France begins on July 4 in Barcelona, Spain, and concludes on July 26 in Paris, France. The course spans about 3,333 kilometers (or about 2,071 miles), over diverse terrain.

It is divided into 21 stages: seven flat, four hilly, eight mountain, including five summit finishes,  one team time trial and one individual time trial. Two rest days are part of the event.

Cycling is different than other sports, in some ways, because there are so many factors that can affect performance, Dr. Wilson noted. The sport has evolved with advancements in equipment and strategies since its inception in 1903.

Fast forward to the present day, and that evolution can be mapped by science.

Modern Day Cycling

The researchers’ combined expertise points to modern cycling performance being shaped by interacting factors that build on each other. These include advances in lighter and more aerodynamic equipment, advanced sports nutrition and fueling strategies, data-driven training programs, and a deeper understanding of recovery and endurance psychology. Even marginal improvements can compound across a 3,333-kilometer race.

They also say that, despite controversy surrounding Lance Armstrong and his use of enhancement drugs that led to his seven consecutive Tour de France victories being stripped, the long-term impact on the race’s speeds was minimal.

Even with some uncertainties, speeds have picked up over time.

“To me, it just reinforces how many different things go into performing well in that sport,” said Dr. Wilson, who directs the Human Performance Lab, part of Macon & Joan Brock Virginia Health Sciences Ellmer College of Health Sciences at ���ϲ�����. “It’s kind of unique in that regard.”

Unlike other team sports, where individual athlete performance can be difficult to measure directly, cycling stands out because it's more quantifiable. The performance can be measured by the cyclist’s power output.

What’s Next

Next, Drs. Wilson and Gore are publishing their findings and exploring similar inquiries. Their research could help explain how humans fuel themselves under truly exhausting conditions and could have other use cases, whether in the military or other environments. It also contributes to broader discussions in sports about the factors driving faster performances.

In the meantime, the researchers eagerly anticipate how their predictions align with actual Tour de France race results in July.

Besides per stage and overall predictions, Dr. Gore — who is a runner, but not a cyclist — said he’ll be watching to see if the commentators discuss new materials used in the bikes, helmets or fueling strategies riders are employing.

And, for Dr. Wilson, a recent cycling adopter himself, even though he’s analyzed the race from a researcher perspective, he has no qualms about being able to enjoy the race.

“I’ll definitely still be able to watch as a fan,” he said.